Missing Millions: The human cost of the Mexican Revolution, 1910-1921

Table 1

Table 1. Nine estimates of the demographic costs of the Mexican revolution
(millions)

Author	Census error	Emigration	Births	Deaths	Total
Descriptions (brackets mark my conversions of words to numbers)
Gamio	-	0.7	[0.8]	0.55	2.0
Loyo	0.5	[0.7]	[0.4]	[0.9]	2.5
Gonzalez Navarro	-	0.15	1.43	0.3	1.9
Demographic models
Collver
A. maximum mortality	0.2	0.2	0.6	2.1	3.1
B. maximum census error	1.2	0.2	0.9	0.5	2.8
Greer	1.2	0.27	1.0	0.6	3.1
Mier y Teran	1.0	0.5	0.8	0.2	2.5
Ordorica and Lezama	[0.5]	0.4	1.1	1.4	2.9 [3.4]
New estimates (see text for ranges)	1.1	0.35*0.5	0.6	1.4	3.3

Sources: Gamio (1930), Loyo (1960), Gonzalez Navarro (nd.), Collver (1965), Greer (1966), Mier y Terán (1982), Ordorica and Lezama (1993); [] inferred from text in source.

Table 2

Table 2. Scenarios of vital rates during the Mexican Revolution

	Annual			Quinquennial
Year	Reform		Revolution	Revolution	Collver		Mier y Terán
Year	Reform		Revolution	Revolution	mortality	error	Mier y Terán
Death rates
1905-9				35.8	32.9	34.1	37.2
1910		34.2	34.2
1911		34.1	37.8
1912		34.0	49.3	46.0	46.6	38.2	38.9
1913		34.0	53.3
1914		33.9	55.4
1915		33.8	50.2
1916		33.7	45.0
1917		33.7	34.1	39.0	48.3	36.8	38.9
1918		37.3	37.3
1919		28.5	28.5
1920		33.2	33.2
1920-24				32.5	28.4	30.9	31.3
Birth rates
1905-9				48.8	46.0	44.6	49.7
1910		47.6	47.6
1911		47.6	46.6
1912		47.6	49.7	45.8	43.2	40.3	45.5
1913		47.6	42.6
1914		47.6	42.4
1915		47.6	42.3
1916		47.6	42.1
1917		47.6	41.9	42.8	40.6	37.5	45.5
1918		47.6	41.9
1919		47.6	46.0
1920		47.6	48.1
1920-24				47.6	45.3	44.4	51.3

Table 3

Table 3. Effects of revolution on life expectancy (e₀), gross (grr) and net reproduction (nrr)
from crude rates of birth, death and net emigration

Year	Life expectancy at birth (years)	Reproduction ratios		Infant mortality rate	Crude rates
Year	Life expectancy at birth (years)	Gross	Net	Infant mortality rate	Birth	Death	Net emigration
Females
1910	31	3.0	1.5	221	46	33	-0.4
1911	28	2.9	1.3	241	45	36	-0.4
1912	22	3.0	1.1	268	48	46	-0.4
1913	18	2.6	0.8	284	41	50	-0.4
1914	17	2.5	0.7	289	41	52	-0.4
1915	19	2.5	0.8	289	40	47	-1.7
1916	22	2.5	0.9	287	40	42	-1.7
1917	28	2.4	1.1	246	40	34	-1.7
1918	26	2.4	1.0	257	40	36	-1.7
1919	34	2.7	1.4	199	44	28	-1.7
1920	31	2.8	1.4	218	46	32	-1.1
1921	32	2.8	1.4	214	46	32	-1.1
1922	32	2.7	1.4	211	46	31	-1.0
1923	33	2.7	1.4	208	45	31	-1.0
1924	33	2.7	1.4	206	45	30	-1.0
1925	33	2.6	1.4	204	45	30	-0.5
1926	30	2.5	1.2	230	44	34	-0.5
1927	28	2.4	1.1	246	42	36	-0.5
1928	29	2.4	1.1	236	42	34	-0.5
1929	32	2.5	1.3	215	43	30	-0.5
1930	35	2.6	1.4	194	44	28	0.4
Males
1910	28			233	49	35	-1.4
1911	25			258	48	40	-1.5
1912	18			268	52	53	-1.6
1913	16			282	44	57	-1.6
1914	15			287	44	59	-1.8
1915	17			285	44	54	-3.3
1916	19			282	44	48	-3.4
1917	28			240	44	34	-3.5
1918	25			263	44	38	-3.5
1919	33			199	48	29	-3.6
1920	30			224	50	34	-1.9
1921	30			221	50	34	-1.9
1922	30			219	50	34	-1.9
1923	31			218	50	34	-1.8
1924	31			217	49	34	-1.8
1925	31			215	49	33	-1.5
1926	27			241	47	38	-1.5
1927	25			257	46	40	-1.5
1928	27			247	46	38	-1.5
1929	29			230	47	35	-1.5
1930	31			212	48	32	1.8